Reports on and about Tunisia

I was going to follow up a bit on this yesterday, but didn't have the time. In any case, foreign media outlets have become filled with op-eds and features on the Tunisia situation.

On the ground in Tunis, BBC's Adam Mynott mentions (remarkably, in an article already 3 days old!):

For the most part, the military is respected in the country, unlike the police who are reviled. So Tunisians have some understanding and tolerance for the numerous military checkpoints that they now have to go through to get from one side of Tunis to the other.

In an interview with PRI's The World, LA Times reporter Borzou Daragahi reports an incident he encountered at a train station, where crowds reacted angrily when police began roughing up a queue, and was only resolved when the military intervened. This would seem to corroborate Mynott's opinion.

I think US response to Tunisia has been simply disappointing: unlike France, whose lack of balls has widely been known as a fact,  the US still holds enormous sway over international opinion, and Hilary Clinton was in a particularly forceful position in Doha. However sharp her criticism was, though, it still fell short of directly accusing the other authoritarian regimes in the region, something which the US undoubtedly knows about, and which the WikiLeaks cables merely confirmed:

Washington has often been accused of paying lip service to human rights and democracy, calling for greater freedoms [ex. in Iran] while supporting autocratic rulers around the Arab world, from Hosni Mubarak of Egypt to Jordan's King Abdullah and the Saudi King

[…] 

But despite its slow response, described by critics as neglect, the US can probably still turn to other Arab rulers now and say "I told you so".

Exactly that: "I told you so" and no more. Writing for Al-Jazeera, UC Irvine professor Mark LeVine attacks Washington's double standards, and details what Obama's response should have been:

While the United States and the international community should not directly intervene unless the military begins killing or arresting large numbers of people, there are a number of steps Obama could take immediately to ensure that this nascent democratic moment takes root and spreads across the region.

First, the President should not merely urge free and fair elections. He must publicly declare that the United States will not recognise, nor continue security or economic relations, with any government that is not democratically elected through international monitored elections. At the same time, he must freeze any assets of Tunisia's now ex-leadership and hold them until they can be reclaimed by the Tunisian people.

Second, he should declare that the young people of Tunisia have shown the example for the rest of the Arab world, and offer his support for a "Jasmin Spring" across the Arab world. Obama should demand that every country in the region free all political prisoners, end all forms of censorship and political repression, and fully follow international law in the way they treat their citizens or the people's under their jurisdictions.

Furthermore, the President should call on every country in the region to move towards free, fair, and internationally monitored elections within a specified time or risk facing a similar cut-off of ties, aid and cooperation. Such demands must be made together with America's reluctant European allies.

Of course, such a call would apply to Israel as much as to Egypt, to Morocco as well as to Saudi Arabia. There would be one standard for every country from the Atlantic to the Indian ocean, and the US would pledge to stand with all people working to bring real democracy, freedom and development to their peoples and countries and to oppose all governments that stand in their way.

Imagine what would happen to America's image in the Muslim world if the President took such a stand? Imagine what would happen to al Qaeda's recruitment levels if he adopted such a policy (in fact, al Qaeda has been equally behind the 8-ball, as it was only Friday that the leaders of the movement's so-called Maghrebian wing declared their support for the protests in Tunisia and Algeria).

Imagine how hard it would be for so-called "supporters" of Israel to attack the President for finally putting some teeth behind his criticism of Israeli policy (which Clinton in Doha incredulously said the US could do nothing to stop) if he could reply that he was only holding Israel to the same standard as everyone else and that his policies were actually protecting America's core interests and security?

Obama has time and time again demonstrated his rhetorical eloquence, most recently in addressing the shooting in Arizona; but his response – at least up to now – regarding Tunisia has been decidedly lackluster. Then again, Reagan's speech in front of the Brandenburg Gate was also not immediately well received, and it was only after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 that the significance of "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" became retroactively recognized.

Another widely retweeted piece has been one by Ethan Zuckerman of Global Voices. Although the internet and social media did play a strong role in the revolution (most importantly, because Ben Ali had already responded to protestors' requests to loosen internet controls), he stresses that in the end it was up to the will of the people, and it is simply too early to call it another "Twitter revolution" à la 2009 Iran:

Pundits will likely start celebrating a "Twitter revolution" in Tunisia, even if they missed watching it unfold; the Atlantic's Andrew Sullivan already revived the dreaded phrase Thursday. Others are seeking connections between unfolding events and a WikiLeaks cable that showed U.S. diplomats' frustration with Ben Ali, and with denial-of-service attacks by online activist group Anonymous, which has been targeting entities that have tried to stop the dissemination of WikiLeaks cables, like the Tunisian government. But any attempt to credit a massive political shift to a single factor -- technological, economic, or otherwise -- is simply untrue. Tunisians took to the streets due to decades of frustration, not in reaction to a WikiLeaks cable, a denial-of-service attack, or a Facebook update.

But as we learn more about the events of the past few weeks, we'll discover that online media did play a role in helping Tunisians learn about the actions their fellow citizens were taking and in making the decision to mobilize. How powerful and significant this influence was will be something that academics will study and argue over for years to come. Scholars aren't the only ones who want to know whether social media played a role in the end of Ben Ali's reign -- it's likely to be a hot topic of conversation in Amman, Algiers, and Cairo, as other autocratic leaders wonder whether the bubbling cauldron of unemployment, street protests, and digital media could burn them next.

Echoing the point that "Tunisians took to the streets... not in reaction to" internet information is another often retweeted message:

@hamadi: Bouazizi et tous les morts ne demandaient pas l'ouverture de youtube #sidibouzid (Bouazizi and all those killed were not demanding YouTube access)

And although an interim government has now been formed and things seem to be following the constitutional process, Nathan J. Brown cautions that this could still be seen as a mere extension of Ben Ali's legacy: if Article 57 was indeed invoked in speaker of parliament Fouad Mebazaa becoming acting president, the fine print in the current constitution will still not allow free and fair elections:

The presidential elections have to be held according to the current constitutional provisions, and those allow only the Potemkin parliament (and a few other officials) the ability to nominate candidates. And while the acting president is serving, no constitutional amendments are allowed. In other words, invocation of Article 57 kicks into gear a process that was carefully designed for Ben Ali. It is designed for a figure handpicked by current top leaders, not for a truly open election.

Add to this the current cabinet lineup, where the PM, interior, and foreign ministers have all retained their posts, and opposition figures now holding relatively inconsequential (at least for the foreseeable future) positions, this throws the future into further doubt, even as the impact of the revolution has begun to spread out to other countries in the region (numerous self-immolation attempts in Algeria, Egypt, and Mauritania, as well as continued unrest in Libya). Also, the richer Arab states seem to be buying off any potential protestors with price cuts and government subsidies, as Enduring America's liveblog suggests.